Riding the Waves of Change
“I didn’t think I’d be saving lives when I started this project,” Toky Sylvestre confesses, his eyes filled with a bittersweet mixture of grief and purpose. Back in 2009, Sylvestre lost two beloved family members in a tragic fishing boat accident off the coast of Madagascar. Little did he know that this devastating event would spark a 15-year journey to revolutionize disaster response and environmental resilience for coastal communities across the island nation.
Sylvestre, an oceanographer by training, immediately went to work developing an early warning system that would alert fishermen to severe wind events before they struck. By blending cutting-edge weather forecasting models with simple SMS technology and vibrant iconography, he created the Mitao Forecast – a lifeline for those who brave the unpredictable waters of the Indian Ocean.
As the project expanded with support from WWF and global partners, the results have been nothing short of miraculous. Between 2014 and 2022, the Mitao Forecast has helped reduce fishing fatalities by a staggering 98% in the 57 villages it serves. But the benefits extend far beyond the water – the system has also empowered communities to better manage their livelihoods and adapt to the growing threats of climate change.
Weathering the Storm
Severe wind events, often fueled by a changing climate, are just one of the many challenges facing Madagascar’s coastal communities. Over the last two decades, the island nation has endured 30 cyclones, 17 floods and flash floods, and prolonged drought – a relentless onslaught that has undermined the resilience of its people and environment.
“Everything is being amplified and intensified,” says Samantha Farquhar, lead author of a study on the impacts of long-term weather changes on small-scale fishers in Madagascar. “We’re starting to see changes in weather patterns because of climate change. Small-scale fisheries are really struggling with this.”
For generations, Malagasy fishermen have relied on traditional wooden canoes known as “laka” or “lakana” to ply the waters. These sturdy vessels are well-suited for calm seas, but they quickly become overwhelmed by the powerful waves and winds unleashed by severe weather events. The consequences can be devastating, with entire communities losing their primary source of income and sustenance.
“If Mr. Toky did not do this, I would say there wouldn’t be any more fisher people in our village,” laments Mr. Mbola François, the 70-year-old president of the Fisherfolk Union in southeast Madagascar’s Ambinanibe Bay. “But now we have more confidence because we have Mr. Toky who provided us with this tool.”
A Lifeline for Coastal Communities
The Mitao Forecast is a true game-changer, providing communities with critical weather information up to four days in advance. Aquatic Service, the NGO Sylvestre founded, collects and analyzes data from commercial and public sources, then shares the results via SMS with trained community focal points. These local leaders then translate the findings into a simple color-coded signboard, making it easy for fishermen to understand the risks and plan their activities accordingly.
“Not only do the fisherfolk know the best days and locations to collect fish products, but I am much better equipped to do financial planning and management of fisherfolks’ households and seasonal planning of orders and stocks,” says Mrs. Onjognaze Violente, a fisheries middlewoman and association president in southeastern Madagascar.
The benefits extend beyond the fishing industry, too. With advance warning of severe weather, the women who manage the fishing businesses can better prepare for disruptions, using the slower days to attend to other tasks like going to the market, fixing nets, or catching up on accounting. It’s a ripple effect that strengthens the entire community’s resilience.
Expanding the Mitao Forecast
Sylvestre’s vision is for the Mitao Forecast to directly benefit one million Malagasy people by the end of 2023 and cover the entire 4,828 km coastline of Madagascar. With support from WWF and other partners, this ambitious goal is well within reach.
“The growing compounding risk many communities face from natural hazards, climate change, and environmental degradation require a systems approach to risk reduction,” explains Anita van Breda, Senior Director of Environment and Disaster Management at WWF-US. “Both nature and people are adapting, and so we need to understand and support the resilience of both.”
Two promising developments are on the horizon. First, the use of artificial intelligence to provide automated, timely, and easy-to-disseminate weather information. And second, the expansion of the Mitao Forecast model to other parts of the world suffering from similar severe wind events, such as Guatemala, Namibia, and India.
As Sylvestre continues to honor the memory of his lost family members, he remains in awe of the Mitao Forecast’s success. “What I had in my mind is that with my initiative, I could save lives,” he says. “You could see a huge void when a father lost a life at sea and there were many orphans. I was thinking it would be good to do something small for kids to be with their families.”
Through his vision and determination, Sylvestre has not only saved countless lives but has also strengthened the environmental resilience of entire communities. And as the Mitao Forecast continues to evolve and expand, the future looks brighter than ever for those who call Madagascar’s coastal regions home.
Strengthening Environmental Services for Disaster Response
The Mitao Forecast is just one example of how Inland Waters Inc. is working to strengthen environmental services and build community resilience in the face of natural disasters. By leveraging the latest technologies, forging strategic partnerships, and empowering local leaders, we are committed to developing innovative solutions that protect both people and the planet.
Whether it’s enhancing early warning systems, restoring critical ecosystems, or improving disaster response coordination, our team of experts is dedicated to creating a more secure and sustainable future for all. Join us as we ride the waves of change and ensure that our communities are prepared to weather any storm.
